With a week left in Canada’s federal election campaign, the Conservative Party is ahead in the Vancouver Island riding of North Island-Powell River, a new Research Co. poll has found.
In the mixed-mode survey of a representative sample of eligible voters in this constituency, 45 per cent of respondents say they will cast a ballot for Conservative candidate Aaron Gunn, while 23 per cent would support Tanille Johnston of the New Democratic Party (NDP).
Jennifer Lash of the Liberal Party is third with 13 per cent, followed by Jassica Wegg of the Green Party with two per cent, Paul Macknight of the People’s Party, also with two per cent, and independent candidate Glen Staples with one per cent. About one-in-six eligible voters in North Island-Powell River (15 per cent) are undecided.
More than two-in-five eligible voters in this riding (44 per cent) say they would “definitely” (14 per cent) or “probably” (30 per cent) partake in strategic voting, while 45 per cent say they would “probably not” (21 per cent) or “definitely not” (24 per cent) do so.
Just over half of eligible voters in North Island-Powell River (51 per cent) approve of Rachel Blaney’s performance as their Member of Parliament, while two-in-five (40 per cent) disapprove. Blaney, who has represented the riding since 2015, is not running for re-election this year.
The best ranked federal party leader in this constituency is Pierre Poilievre of the Conservative Party (53 per cent), followed by Mark Carney of the Liberals (42 per cent), Jagmeet Singh of the NDP (41 per cent), Elizabeth May and Jonathan Pedneault of the Greens (27 per cent) and Maxime Bernier of the People’s Party (19 per cent).
When eligible voters in North Island-Powell River are asked who they prefer to serve as prime minister of Canada after this year’s federal election, 43 per cent choose Poilievre while 37 per cent select Carney.
Poilievre is ahead among men (53 per cent), eligible voters aged 35-to-54 (48 per cent) and eligible voters aged 55 and over (49 per cent), while Carney leads among eligible voters aged 18-to-34 (45 per cent). The two contenders are statistically tied among women (Carney 35 per cent, Poilievre 34 per cent).
Results are based on a mixed-mode (telephone and online) survey conducted from April 17 to April 19, 2025, among 402 eligible federal voters in the North Island-Powell River federal constituency. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age and gender in the North Island-Powell River federal constituency. The margin of error, which measures sample variability, is +/- 4.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Mario Canseco is president of Research Co.
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