One month from now, the riding of North Island-Powell River will have a new MP representing its constituents in Ottawa.
With NDP incumbent Rachel Blaney deciding not to run, and the ups and downs of major parties over the last year, two questions require answering. Who will be our next MP, and will they be in a party forming government, part of the official opposition, or somewhere further back on the bench?
In the last federal election in 2021, Blaney won for a third time (2015 and 2019). With NDP fortunes waning nationally, can the party’s new candidate, Tanille Johnston, hold that seat?
New Conservative candidate Aaron Gunn and new Liberal candidate Jennifer Lash benefit from stronger support for their parties across the country. Whether that will be enough to dethrone the NDP in what has been a stronghold of late is another question to be answered on April 28. Provincially, the qathet part of the riding is represented by the NDP, but the North Island chose a conservative as MLA. Is there more than an ocean separating constituents?
Blaney received 23,833 votes in 2021, more than the 21,670 garnered by Conservative candidate Shelley Downey. Jennifer Grenz of the Liberals was third with 7,922.
The only other two candidates who have declared their intention to run in 2025 also vied for the seat in 2021. Green Party candidate Jessica Wegg obtained 3,656 votes and Paul Macknight of the People's Party collected 2,795.
The riding encompasses the northern part of Vancouver Island, including Port Hardy and Campbell River, and qathet Regional District areas, including Powell River.
Some voters have decided, but minds can change over the course of a campaign. Ideally, whoever is chosen as MP here is on the governing side of the House of Commons when it sits next.
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