After weeks of knocking on doors, Tanille Johnston says she’s found Conservative voters in North Island-Powell River tend to be firm on who they’re voting for, but others are less decided.
“A lot of it is a worry of vote splitting,” said the NDP candidate. “People are aligned on wanting to keep out the Conservatives.”
Johnston said it’s by far the most frequent conversation she’s having with undecided voters as she campaigns across B.C.’s third-largest riding by geographical size.
John Duncan held Vancouver Island North for two decades for the Conservatives and its predecessor parties up until 2015, when New Democrat Rachel Blaney won the seat. After a decade in office, Blaney isn’t running again, so the seat is open for a fresh face.
Before Duncan, Ray Skelly held the riding for the NDP for 14 years before he was defeated.
“It’s between us and the Conservatives for the last 50 plus years,” Johnston said.
But this election, it’s Conservative candidate Aaron Gunn who’s leading in the polls — despite First Nations outrage at his recently resurfaced comments rejecting the idea that residential schools were instruments of genocide.
The Homalco and K’ómoks nations have released statements denouncing Gunn, while seven other elected chiefs, five area mayors and dozens of other local elected officials signed a letter asking the Conservative Party to drop Gunn as a candidate. The Union of B.C. Indian Chiefs and B.C. First Nations Leadership Council have also called for him to be dropped.
Party Leader Pierre Poilievre, who has made several visits to the riding to support Gunn’s candidacy, has stood by his candidate, however, calling the accusations “misinformation.”
Before Gunn announced his intention to run for federal office in 2023, he was involved with the B.C. Conservatives and ran for the leadership of the then centre-right B.C. Liberal Party.
His 2021 leadership race was cut short after the party rejected Gunn for comments made on social media that it said were “inconsistent with the B.C. Liberal Party’s commitment to reconciliation, diversity and acceptance of all British Columbians.”
Gunn’s campaign has been endorsed by the mayor of Campbell River, the largest city in the region, and two local MLAs — Anna Kindy and Brennan Day.
Gunn declined to be interviewed on the record.
The campaign says it has distributed 2,800 lawn signs to people who have requested them throughout the riding.
While Liberal candidate Jennifer Lash acknowledges the “really big uphill battle” for the Liberals in the riding, she said she’s feeling the momentum that Liberal Leader Mark Carney has brought to the race.
The last time North Islanders chose a Liberal to represent them in parliament was more than half a century ago, when Pierre Trudeau was prime minister and the riding stretched down to Port Alberni.
Lash, a former long-time NDP voter, started angling for the Liberal candidacy in October, when the party under Justin Trudeau was 19 points behind in national polls and the Conservatives were projected to form a majority government.
But in recent months, as support for the Liberals surged across the country in response to U.S. President Donald Trump’s comments about making Canada the 51st state, the local volunteer base for the Liberals has swelled to about 150, Lash said.
Jessica Wegg, who is running again for the Greens, acknowledges that “a large chunk of people” in the riding are planning to vote Conservative. Like Johnston, Wegg said she’s hearing concerns about vote-splitting.
In a riding where about two in 10 jobs are connected to the forestry, fishery and mining sectors, she has had to work to dispel rumours that the Greens are against resource-extraction industries.
The slow decline of fishing and forestry has made well-paying jobs harder to find on the North Island.
People of working age are leaving the region for work and study, particularly those from more remote communities.
Even in Campbell River, the centre of B.C.’s salmon-farming industry, the largest cohort of residents is age 60 to 75.
However, some younger people are also moving into the region, drawn by the relative affordability of housing.
Andrea Kerr, who moved to Port Hardy from Parksville in 2018, said while housing is more affordable in the area, there are other challenges. “Our gas prices are higher, our grocery prices are higher.” And a lot of services that city-dwellers might take for granted, such as orthodontists, often require a long trip out of the community, she said. Positions in teaching and health care can be hard to fill.
Kerr, who manages the North Island College campus in Port Hardy, said health care and the trades are the most in-demand courses at the post-secondary institution. Tourism programs are a distant third, she said.
While a number of coastal communities are trying to develop their harbours and marinas to better attract recreational boaters, tourism only accounts for about six per cent of the local economy.
Kerr said remote Indigenous communities in particular want to train carpenters so that they can build and maintain their own homes.
Indigenous communities — anywhere from 12 to 20 per cent of the population of North Island-Powell River — could play a significant role in the race.
Johnston, a member of We Wai Kai First Nation, said she has been meeting with numerous First Nations, taking additional trips into reserve communities and meeting with leaders of the remote Wuikinuxv Nation, whose home community is near Owikeno Lake in the Central Coast. Johnston’s campaign manager is a member of Premier David Eby’s office.
About 14 all-candidates meetings were planned in North Island-Powell River, but most have been cancelled or rescheduled after Gunn’s comments on residential schools came to light, said Johnston.
Gunn and People’s Party candidate Paul Macknight did not show up to the two all-candidates meetings held so far in the riding, in Alert Bay and Comox. Independent Glen Staples was present for Monday’s meeting at the Comox Legion.
Wegg said in a campaign where there’s been a lot of “mud-flinging” but less talk about parties’ plans to deal with issues facing people in the riding, all-candidates meetings can be the “best opportunity that people have to find out where you really stand on issues.”
Gunn’s campaign did not confirm if he would attend any all-candidates meetings before the election, but said he’s working on having “as many one-on-one conversations with North Islanders as possible.”
Macknight did not respond to a request for comment.
NORTH ISLAND-POWELL RIVER RIDING
North Island-Powell River encompasses Powell River on the mainland and part of north Vancouver Island, including Campbell River, Comox, Port Hardy and Port McNeill. It has undergone some boundary changes for this election.
Size: 53,549 square kilometres
Population: 125,925 (2021 census)
Electors on list: 108,490
Current MP: Rachel Blaney, NDP, is not running again.
2021 voter turnout: 65.3 per cent
In the past: New Democrat Rachel Blaney was first elected in 2015. She captured 40 per cent of the vote then, and about the same in 2021. The Conservative candidate had 36 per cent, while the Liberals had 13 per cent.
Prior to Blaney’s victory in 2015, John Duncan, representing the Conservatives (or its Reform Party and Canadian Alliance predecessors) held Vancouver Island North for 20 of the previous 22 years.
THE CANDIDATES
Aaron Gunn, Conservative Party
A lifetime resident of Vancouver Island, Aaron Gunn lives in Campbell River. He has served in the Canadian Army Reserves and been a documentary maker. He has come under fire for his comments on residential schools.
Website: aarongunn.ca
Facebook: facebook.com/ AaronGunn.ca
Instagram: instagram.com/ aarongunnbc
X: x.com/AaronGunn
Tanille Johnston, NDP
Tanille Johnston is a member of the We Wai Kai First Nation who lives in Campbell River. She has a master’s degree in social work and was elected to Campbell River city council in 2022.
Website: tanillejohnston.ndp.ca
Facebook: facebook.com/ ndptanille
Instagram: instagram.com/ votetanille
Jennifer Lash, Liberal Party
Jennifer Lash lives on Sointula and has previously lived in Nanaimo. She describes herself as an entrepreneur and consultant, and founded two not-for-profit organizations.
Website: jenniferlash.liberal.ca
Facebook: facebook.com/people/Jennifer-Lash-for-North-Island-Powell-River/61573331577142
Instagram: instagram.com/ jenlashliberal
X: x.com/jenlashliberal
Bluesky: bsky.app/profile/ jenniferlash.bsky.social
Paul Macknight, People’s Party
Paul Macknight is a self-employed painting contractor. He calls himself a “dedicated advocate for economic fairness.”
Website: peoplespartyofcanada.ca/candidate/paul-macknight
Glen Staples, Independent
Glen Staples lives in Courtenay on a small acreage where he raises chickens. As an Independent, his goal is to “air out the issues.” He also ran as an Independent in 2019, receiving 287 votes.
Facebook: facebook.com/ vote4glen
Jessica Wegg, Green Party
Jessica Wegg is a lawyer who lives in Comox and focuses her practice on Indigenous legal issues. She also ran for the Green Party in 2021, when she got 6.1 per cent of the vote.
Website: greenparty.ca/en/ candidate/jessica-wegg
Facebook: facebook.com/ jessicaweggnipr
Instagram: instagram.com/jessicaweggnipr
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