Pro Picks is a weekly column where AP Pro Football Writer Rob Maaddi shares his picks for upcoming games. For all previous Pro Picks, head here.
___
Russell Wilson and Lamar Jackson go head-to-head for first place. Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes renew their rivalry. Jalen Hurts and Jayden Daniels started theirs.
Big-time quarterback matchups highlight the NFL’s Week 11 schedule.
Wilson and the Steelers (7-2) host two-time MVP Jackson and the Ravens (7-3) in a showdown in the AFC North on Sunday. Then Mahomes and the undefeated Chiefs (9-0) take on Allen and the AFC East-leading Bills (8-2) in a playoff rematch.
The NFC East lead was at stake when Hurts and the Eagles beat Daniels and the Commanders 26-18 on Thursday night, giving Pro Picks a win to start the week.
Five road teams are favorites, including Baltimore, according to BetMGM Sportsbook.
Seattle (4-5) at San Francisco (5-4)
Line: 49ers minus 6 1/2
The Seahawks haven’t defeated the 49ers since Wilson was their quarterback in 2021. San Francisco has won six straight in the series, including a playoff victory. Seattle is a long way from its 3-0 start under rookie coach Mike Macdonald. The Seahawks are coming off a bye, and they have the NFL’s No. 1 passing offense behind Geno Smith but their defense is bottom third. The 49ers just got Christian McCaffrey back last week and this is the time of year when they go on a run. They were 9-0 after a bye in 2022, 6-0 after it last season and started 1-0 with last week’s win in Tampa Bay. Brock Purdy had an excellent game against the Buccaneers and is 5-0 with a passer rating above 115 against the Seahawks.
BEST BET: 49ERS: 31-20
Cincinnati (4-6) at Los Angeles Chargers (6-3)
Line: Chargers minus 1 1/2
Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase and the Bengals had a shot to knock off the Ravens last week, but blew a 14-point lead and then couldn’t convert a 2-point conversion at the end. Burrow is playing his best football but has a tough challenge against a defense that has two straight games of six sacks or more. The Chargers are giving up the fewest points per game (13.1) and Justin Herbert has benefited from a strong rushing attack. The Chargers are 3-0 against the spread as a home favorite. The Bengals are 2-1 ATS as an underdog.
UPSET SPECIAL: BENGALS: 23-20
Green Bay (6-3) at Chicago (4-5)
Line: Packers minus 5 1/2
Fresh off a bye, the Packers seek their first NFC North victory after losing to the two teams ahead of the them: Detroit and Minnesota. Jordan Love has thrown 10 picks in 240 attempts. Caleb Williams has struggled during a three-game losing streak and the Bears fired their offensive coordinator this week. Maybe a fresh voice can help Williams get going. Green Bay is 10-0 against the spread in the past 10 games vs. Chicago. The Bears are 2-13 straight up in the past 15 divisional games.
PACKERS: 24-16
Jacksonville (2-8) at Detroit (8-1)
Line: Lions minus 14
The Lions found a way to win a difficult road game in Houston despite Jared Goff’s five interceptions. With tougher games coming up, they can’t afford a letdown against the overmatched Jaguars. Jacksonville might be the biggest disappointment in the league this season. The Jaguars are 1-6 in one-score games and have lost 13 of 16 since an 8-3 start last year after winning their division in 2022. Mascot Jaxson De Ville might be the team’s MVP.
LIONS: 31-16
Minnesota (7-2) at Tennessee (2-7)
Line: Vikings minus 6
Sam Darnold is starting to show why he’s on his fourth team, but the Vikings are still winning thanks to a stout defense. Darnold has five interceptions in the past two games and is tied with Love and Geno Smith for the most interceptions in the NFL with 10. Will Levis returned from injury and had his best game for the Titans in another loss. Tennessee still has the top-ranked defense in the league, giving up the fewest yards per game.
VIKINGS: 23-16
Las Vegas (2-7) at Miami (3-6)
Line: Dolphins minus 7 1/2
Miami’s offense is almost back on track with Tua Tagovailoa and the defense stepped up in a road win against the Rams on Monday night. The Dolphins can climb back into the AFC wild-card race with two winnable games coming up against the lowly Raiders and the Patriots. Las Vegas returns from a bye with three new assistant coaches. The Raiders have bigger issues. The offense can’t score and the defense can’t stop opponents from finding the end zone. A short week for Miami off a West Coast game prevents a rout.
DOLPHINS: 23-16
Los Angeles Rams (4-5) at New England (3-7)
Line: Rams minus 4 1/2
The inconsistent Rams blew a chance to better position themselves for a playoff run with a home loss to Miami. They’ve got an opportunity to rebound against an overmatched team that’s coming off an impressive road win. Drake Maye has been a bright spot for the Patriots and earned his first win as a starter in Chicago. New England sacked Caleb Williams nine times and could make it a long afternoon for Matthew Stafford.
RAMS: 24-17
Cleveland (2-7) at New Orleans (3-7)
Line: Browns minus 1
Jameis Winston returns to New Orleans where he started 10 games in four seasons with the Saints. Winston excelled while leading the Browns to an upset win over the Ravens in his first start and struggled in his second. The Browns are coming off a bye and aren’t as bad as their record. The Saints upset the first-place Falcons in interim coach Darren Rizzi’s debut. They haven’t turned the ball over in three games, though only won once. Cleveland’s Nick Chubb could have a breakout game against a bottom-six run defense in his fourth game back.
BROWNS: 20-17
Indianapolis (4-6) at New York Jets (3-7)
Line: Jets minus 4
The Colts are going back to Anthony Richardson after Joe Flacco had six turnovers, including four interceptions, in the past two games. Cornerback Kenny Moore doesn’t think his teammates are working hard enough. The Jets are more of a mess. Aaron Rodgers hasn’t made an impact. The offense is 26th in yards and averaging just 17.7 points per game. New York’s defense has gone downhill since Robert Saleh was fired. Someone has to win, though.
JETS: 17-16
Baltimore (7-3) at Pittsburgh (7-2)
Line: Ravens minus 3
The Steelers have dominated this rivalry, winning seven of the past eight games. Wilson gets his first taste of it after leading Pittsburgh to three straight wins in his first three games. The Ravens have the No. 1 rushing offense and are first overall in total yards. But the Steelers are fourth against the run. Jackson is 2-4 with four TDs, seven interceptions and a 66.8 passer rating against Pittsburgh. The Ravens are 1-5 ATS in their past six games vs. Steelers.
RAVENS: 24-23
Atlanta (6-4) at Denver (5-5)
Line: Broncos minus 2
The Falcons couldn’t overcome Younghoe Koo’s three missed field goals in New Orleans. Now, Kirk Cousins and the rest of Atlanta’s offense face a tough challenge in Denver against the league’s fifth-ranked defense. Bo Nix outplayed Mahomes last week and should have plenty of time to throw facing the league’s worst pass rush. Sean Payton has to make sure the Broncos aren’t sulking after a crushing loss in Kansas City.
BRONCOS: 24-20
Kansas City (9-0) at Buffalo (8-2)
Line: Bills minus 2
The Chiefs barely stayed undefeated thanks to a blocked field goal on the final play against Denver. Their plus-58 point differential is the lowest of any of the 34 teams that have started 9-0. But Patrick Mahomes relishes the underdog role. The Chiefs have won five straight games as underdogs, including a victory at San Francisco in Week 7. Mahomes is 11-3 during his career as an underdog. The Bills are off to their best start since 1993 thanks to feasting on teams with a combined record of 26-49. Josh Allen is 3-1 against Mahomes in the regular season, 0-3 in the playoffs, including a home loss in the divisional round last January.
CHIEFS: 22-20
Houston (6-4) at Dallas (3-6)
Line: Texans minus 7 1/2
The Texans blew a 16-point lead against Detroit and failed to take advantage of five picks. C.J. Stroud needs to get the offense going and could get help if receiver Nico Collins returns. Houston won’t need to score many points against Dallas, which won’t have Dak Prescott for the rest of the season. The Cowboys can’t run the ball and that makes everything more difficult for backup QB Cooper Rush. Micah Parsons is the only one who could keep Dallas from another 20-point loss.
TEXANS: 27-16
Last week: Straight up: 10-4. Against spread: 9-5.
Overall: Straight up: 105-48. Against spread: 82-69-2.
Prime-time: Straight up: 23-10. Against spread: 16-16-1.
Best Bet: Straight up: 7-3. Against spread: 6-4.
Upset Special: Straight up: 7-3. Against spread: 7-3.
___
AP NFL: https://apnews.com/hub/nfl
Rob Maaddi, The Associated Press
