There aren’t terribly many among us today in Canada who can thank Donald Trump for an improvement in our station in life.
Mark Carney is one.
His dominant Liberal leadership victory Sunday had a lot to do with the U.S. president and the on-again, off-again, up-again, down-again, soon-again, probably-again, more-again threats, bluster, reprieves, musings, restatements, demands, dial-backs and mind games.
Were it not for Trump, he might have won the leadership but been roadkill in an election. As it stands, and for how long no one knows, he is now a presumptive prime minister. Canadians, for the time being at least, consider him a better foil for the guy behind the desk in the Oval Office, and for the time being that appears to be what matters.
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, who could have coasted to victory only a couple of months ago in delivering an axe-the-tax, stop-the-crime, build-the-homes message, now has to earn the job seemingly all over again with a Canada First message against Carney’s Canada Strong one. Just as Poilievre shed his glasses for contact lenses and the blue suit for a wider fashion ensemble, he has to shed the Canada-is-broken mantra for Canada-is-great jingo. It must feel to him familiarly like one of those squandered third-period Vancouver Canucks leads that now has to go into overtime.
Campaigns matter, and in today’s climate of constant change, no one can tell what a handful of weeks will reshape in voter intentions. But if the election is about Trump, it leans toward Carney. If the election is about Justin Trudeau, you can’t be all that sure.
It is worth wondering why, if Carney is the answer, there are such questions about him. But there are: about his real role as a bank governor here in suppressing a recession, in England about ministering to Brexit; about his role in Brookfield Asset Management’s decision when he was chair to situate headquarters in New York; about his deficit accounting scheme to separate capital from operational spending; and how vigorously he will pursue an agenda on climate change spending while contending with the uncertainty of Trump tariff threats. There appear to be blanks to fill in on his housing strategy, his blueprint for Indigenous reconciliation, Canada’s defence and our place in the wider world.
It is worth wondering, because to date we can’t get these answers ourselves. Carney has consciously been selective about his media access and hasn’t seen it necessary to sell himself through local and regional media – and hardly ever through the national press – as he sold himself in his leadership campaign. The strategy can’t last, of course. He will call an election any day or week now and he can’t get more than a few days in a bubble.
Understanding Trump is an impossibility. Despite what his famous book says, there appears no Art of the Deal anyone can follow. There are insufficient powers to neutralize him, and mollifying him appears to be an embarrassing exercise in sycophancy. As best as anyone can tell, we need to stay awake to constant provocation for the next three-and-a-half years. It’s as if we’re entering COVID 2.0 with a cross-border social distancing. Is Carney, who will have to reset the game with Trump even if he has a brief period in office, the guy who can penetrate the fog?
The choice for voters, then, amounts to electing a prime minister with no political experience or one with only political experience, one with vast private sector experience or one without any.
It was a little disconcerting that Carney’s low-octane acceptance speech Sunday had the energy of a concession. His intellect has not yet stepped aside to unfurl what lies beneath in emotion. The polls may show Canadians trust his credentials to best stand for the country in this existential moment, but would it have hurt him to at least revel and rev us up in the moment?
Jean Chretien was the king of turning down the political temperature, and perhaps Carney also sees the value in soothing and not stoking the frayed nerves of the country. Maybe, too, he is borrowing from the subtlety of Gordie Howe in playing the elbows-up game without advertising it. Whatever the case, the time ahead will be politically fascinating like nothing we can recall.
Kirk LaPointe is a Glacier Media columnist with an extensive background in journalism who is vice-president in the office of the chairman at Fulmer & Company.
